Young Israelis face decisive vote as 640,000 first-timers enter electorate

The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 first-time voters aged 18 to 22 will cast ballots on Tuesday, Oct. 27. This group constitutes nearly 10% of the total electorate and holds the potential to determine up to 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Turnout data suggests this cohort will not sit on the sidelines. A May IDI survey found that 80% to 95% of prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters intend to participate. Secular Jewish youth reported the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents said they would vote. These figures significantly exceed the 47% youth turnout recorded in the 2024 United States presidential election.

Economic pressure and security concerns drive the agenda for these new voters. Hoffman, who heads the IDI education policy program, noted that this generation experienced the pandemic in middle school, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of Oct. 7. A separate poll by Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found 67% of young respondents certain to vote and another 19% likely to do so.

Political leanings remain mixed, though surveys point toward the center and right. An N12 poll from Sept. 23 showed 74% of young Israelis identifying as right-wing or center-right. In that same survey, 16% planned to support Yashar, the party led by Gadi Eisenkot, while 14% supported the Likud. Mock elections in high schools indicated strong support for Yashar and Beyachad, the latter led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

Individual motivations vary by region and community. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, plans to vote for the opposition change bloc to remove Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from power. She cited the need to change the country's future. Conversely, Omer Gross, 18, from Jerusalem, supports the Religious Zionist party. He favors Bezalel Smotrich's West Bank policies and wants a strong, secure Israel.

Others focus on structural reforms. Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herziliyah, will back the change bloc to enforce universal military service for ultra-Orthodox men and lower living costs. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shef-Amra, seeks an Arab party that addresses resource gaps and crime in Arab communities. Sabeh stated he is urging friends to vote, declaring, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."