White House Staff Draft Plans for Post-Netanyahu Israel

Senior White House aides are preparing to pivot their diplomatic approach if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu loses the upcoming Israeli election.

The shift in planning stems from deepening disagreements within the administration regarding Israel's military and political direction. These fractures became apparent in the days leading up to the vote.

Vice President JD Vance signaled the split on the campaign trail this week. He told reporters that he was neither attacking nor endorsing Netanyahu, noting that the president's endorsement was the final authority. This distance contrasted with the general consensus among the president's closest circle. Many of them opposed the decision to endorse the prime minister, arguing the United States should have stayed out of the race entirely. One adviser described the calculus bluntly: Netanyahu is the devil the president knows.

Policy disagreements have also surfaced on specific regional issues. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack criticized recent Israeli airstrikes in Syria's Idlib province. He labeled the strikes an unnecessary escalation that did not advance regional stability. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team have maintained closer ties with the prime minister. However, they have expressed frustration over what they see as a lack of effort to curb settler attacks in the West Bank and to strengthen the Lebanese government.

Polling data released ahead of the October 27 vote reinforces the need for contingency planning. The latest Maariv survey shows the opposition bloc holding a 54-seat lead. Netanyahu's bloc has fallen to 48 seats. In a direct comparison for the prime ministerial role, opposition leader Eisenkot leads the incumbent with 49 percent support to 41 percent.

The survey also indicates a preference for coalition governance if the election results are inconclusive. Sixty percent of respondents said they would prefer a unity government over another election. Among those supporters, 33 percent wanted a candidate from the opposition bloc to lead such a government, compared with 19 percent who preferred Netanyahu. Eight percent supported a unity government regardless of leadership.