Analysts foresee third Iran war

The United States and Israel may resume military operations against Iran following the November 3 midterm elections.

Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies, stated that a renewed war appears almost inevitable. He expects the third phase of the conflict to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and submarine internet lines in the Strait of Hormuz. Citrinowicz, who served as an intelligence official for more than two decades, previously warned that military action would not change the Iranian regime but would expand regional conflict.

The two nations have already fought Iran in two separate wars over the past 18 months. The first conflict began in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear sites and ended after 12 days. Fighting returned in February following a U.S. military buildup, which included Israeli strikes on senior leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since the summer truce collapsed, both sides have largely paused direct strikes. However, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, and Iran has continued targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the election. He claimed Iran was making up fake hits and mines. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that vessel attacks aim to pressure Washington. Iranian demands include sanctions relief, reparations, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have attempted to restart talks without success.

The human cost has risen sharply. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran. Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have been killed. Deaths have also occurred in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear if Trump will approve it.

Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that the war has pushed Iranian leadership to double down on revolutionary ideology. She predicted retaliation from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, which could target airports and other economic sites. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that Trump lacks a clear goal. He stated that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate and that diplomacy remains possible if Iran faces existential economic pressure and a limited diplomatic exit.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces a close election in the coming days. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. He warned that political calculation might combine with an inflated Iranian development to produce an unnecessary attack.