Marshall: Losing Kansas Could Cost GOP Senate Majority

Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas acknowledged on Monday that Democrats could gain control of the Senate if he loses his re-election bid in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since the 1930s. The Kansas senator admitted the race had moved from a safe Republican victory to a competitive toss-up in recent months.

Marshall spoke in Wichita hours before President Donald Trump held a rally in support of the incumbent. Marshall, a physician, said the stakes were high for the party's majority. "I think that, you know, I'm not a political expert, I'm a physician, but if we lose Kansas, I don't see how we keep control of the Senate," he said. He added that a vote for his opponent was effectively a vote for Democrat control of the chamber.

The race has been driven by the candidacy of Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor who has led the Church of the Resurrection in Kansas for about three decades. Hamilton has styled himself as a moderate, creating a contrast with Marshall that political scientists say is helping Democrats close the gap. Don Haider-Markel, a political science professor at the University of Kansas, noted that the current conditions are ideal for the opposition in a midterm cycle.

Fuel costs have become a central issue in the campaign. Marshall said the price of gas was the primary reason his lead had shrunk. He recalled visiting all 105 counties in the state in June and feeling growing frustration as prices rose. "Maybe we're up 12 points before the Iran War, and as the price went up our poll numbers went down, so I think it's the price of gas," Marshall said.

Gas stations along the route from Overland Park to Wichita displayed fuel prices hovering just below $4 per gallon and diesel prices well over $6. Nathaniel Birkhead, a political science professor at Kansas State University, argued that while high fuel prices hurt Marshall, the senator's close alignment with Trump was also a factor. Birkhead suggested that a candidate less tied to the Trump brand might have faced a less competitive race.

Trump, who is not on the ballot in this midterm election, urged voters in Park City to imagine his presence in the race. "In this election, I'm asking you to pretend please that I'm on the ballot," Trump said. He continued, "Just pretend."

Marshall maintains that he cannot win without the turnout of Trump supporters. He noted that the majority of undecided voters are Trump backers who need to hear a plan to lower prices. "We don't win this election without Trump voters getting out and voting," Marshall said.