Haredi Split and Bennett Shape Coalition Math

Political assessments suggest Agudat Yisrael and Naftali Bennett may determine the structure of Israel's next government.

With less than a day remaining before voting begins, analysts are reviewing scenarios that include a coalition supported by Arab parties or a repeat election. One proposal involves Agudat Yisrael supporting an opposition-led government in exchange for budgetary agreements. However, such a deal might still require votes from Arab parties to secure a majority.

Yitzhak Goldknopf heads the three-seat Agudat Yisrael faction. Maariv reported in August that the party was exploring cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. These discussions occurred amid internal friction within United Torah Judaism between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah. The dispute centers on the haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with coalition behavior, while Degel Hatorah signaled a lack of confidence in the government. Rabbi Dov Lando also wrote a letter expressing reservations about the commitment to the Likud-led bloc.

Goldknopf faces a challenge because his voters identify with the Right. Assessments indicate that supporting a change bloc government could push some supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. Attention is also directed at former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. If neither bloc wins a majority of 61 seats, Bennett could join a Netanyahu-led government. This is considered a remote scenario, but some view Bennett as the only leader in the change bloc capable of such a step due to his background on the Right. His current party composition would complicate the move.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential candidate for such a move, given his history as defense minister in a Netanyahu government. However, current assessments hold that Liberman is far from such a decision due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister. The question of which politician might shift their base could become central to coalition negotiations. These remain scenarios and political assessments rather than agreements reached between the parties.