Musk Counters NASA Panel: Lunar Lander Needs Six to Eight Tankers

Elon Musk has pushed back against a NASA safety panel's calculation for lunar logistics, asserting that fewer rocket flights are required to fuel the crewed lander.

The disagreement surfaced during the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel's quarterly meeting on Thursday. Panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, flagged the refueling process as a primary risk for Artemis IV, the mission scheduled to put astronauts on the Moon in 2028. Precourt stated, "We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander," and cited a current estimate of approximately 22 flights.

Ars Technica journalist Eric Berger posted Precourt's remark on X, drawing an immediate response from Musk. "That's way too high," Musk wrote in reply. "Actual number will be more like 6 to 8."

The logistical challenge arises because Starship consumes nearly all its propellant reaching Earth orbit. To reach the Moon, the vehicle requires an orbital depot. SpaceX launches a storage tank first, followed by tanker Starships that dock and transfer fuel. Once the depot is full, the lunar lander launches, refuels, and departs. Each tanker represents a full rocket launch, adding time and cost to the mission timeline.

Berger calculated that even with two launches per week by late 2027, filling the depot at the panel's 22-flight estimate would take three months. The variance in numbers depends on propellant delivery efficiency and boil-off losses in orbit. NASA's figure appears based on current Starship lift capacity, while Musk's lower range assumes a more capable version of the vehicle.

Musk has previously contested higher launch counts. In 2021, he dismissed a government estimate of 16 launches as "extremely unlikely," predicting a maximum of eight tankers would suffice. SpaceX plans to execute refueling with its upgraded V3 Starship, hardware it has not yet fully flown.

Precourt noted that Artemis IV involves "a large number of firsts." He also credited NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman for clearing obstacles for both SpaceX and Blue Origin. Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander does not rely on orbital refueling for its initial mission.