Poll shows Democrats ahead in House races but facing enthusiasm gap

The 2026 midterm election cycle is entering its final stretch with Democrats holding a statistical advantage in the House, though the margin is narrower than earlier in the year. A new poll conducted by Marist for NPR and PBS News reveals that while Democrats are favored to flip control of the chamber, the scale of their victory may be limited by structural and behavioral factors. The survey, fielded October 19 and 20, polled 1,289 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

President Trump’s job approval remains low, with 38% of registered voters approving of his performance and 61% disapproving. The gap narrows slightly among likely voters, who rated him 40% to 59%. Despite this, 53% of both registered and likely voters said they strongly disapprove of the job he is doing, a level tied for the highest ever recorded in this polling series. Trump’s personal favorability is even lower, with 59% of likely voters holding a negative impression.

Democrats maintain a lead on the generic congressional ballot, a key indicator of party control. Among registered voters, the Democratic edge is 10 points, while it stands at 8 points among likely voters. Historically, leads of this size have correlated with Democrats winning at least 30 seats. However, recent redistricting efforts, including mid-decade map changes in Republican states, have tilted the seat distribution in favor of the GOP, creating a structural headwind for the Democrats.

Voter enthusiasm provides another layer of complexity. Democratic likely voters are 10 points more likely to report being very enthusiastic about voting, with 71% expressing high enthusiasm compared to 61% of Republicans. Yet, key Democratic pillars show lower turnout motivation. Only 42% of likely voters under 45 and 53% of non-white voters said they are very enthusiastic, despite disapproving of Trump’s job performance. In contrast, 68% of MAGA supporters and 66% of white women without college degrees reported high enthusiasm.

Cost of living remains the primary driver for voters across the spectrum. One-third of respondents reported experiencing financial hardship in the past year, and 4 in 10 said their personal finances have worsened. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent from Arizona, cited high food and gas prices as his main concern. He described prices as too expensive for everyone, regardless of who they voted for. The economy is also the top issue for independents who lean Democratic.

Immigration stands as the biggest concern for self-described MAGA supporters, while preserving democracy resonates more with Democrats and independents. On the specific issue of legal status, 61% of voters said immigrants should have a way to stay in the country legally if they meet certain requirements. However, two-thirds of Republicans said immigrants should be required to leave if they do not meet those requirements.

Attitudes toward government efficiency show a sharp partisan divide. 57% of voters said government is almost always wasteful and inefficient, a view held by majorities of Republicans and independents. Nearly 6 in 10 Democrats, however, said government often does a better job than people give it credit for. This sentiment extends to 59% of democratic socialists, who view the federal government as a more effective tool for change.

Public opinion on new data center construction remains largely negative. Six in 10 likely voters said the building of new data centers will mostly have a negative impact on the country. Opposition is even stronger at the local level, with 66% opposing the construction of a data center in their community. While Democrats and independents overwhelmingly oppose such projects, Republicans are split, with majorities of MAGA supporters viewing the expansion as a net positive.

Confidence in the election process is high overall, with three-quarters of likely voters confident that their state and local governments will run a fair and accurate election. However, Republicans lag behind Democrats on this metric. 88% of Democrats expressed confidence, compared to 68% of Republicans. A quarter of Republicans said their preferred candidate should probably or definitely challenge the results if they lose, a sentiment held by twice as many MAGA supporters as democratic socialists.