Lula Rally Packs Rio Beach as Brazil Prepares for Historic Vote

Tens of thousands of supporters filled Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday. They gathered to support President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of the presidential runoff on Sunday. The crowd created a carnival-like atmosphere under a strong sun.

Nearly 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote. The race is currently a dead heat. Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round on October 4 with 47% of the vote. Lula received 45% in that same contest. Since democracy returned to Brazil in the 1980s, no candidate who lost the first round has won the final vote. A victory for Lula would break that historical trend.

Activists in the crowd unfurled a large yellow and green banner. It read, "WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!" Josias Silva, a 61-year-old truck driver, carried a homemade sign. The sign said, "Lula re-elected. Tomorrow will be a new day." Silva claimed the recent street protests show that the people have woken up. He predicted Lula would win more than 60% of the vote. Current polls suggest the margin will be much smaller.

Most analysts view Bolsonaro as the slight favorite. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, served as president from 2019 to 2022. Flávio Bolsonaro has campaigned on a promise to fight violent crime with an iron fist. In recent days, Lula has climbed in the polls. This shift follows several scandals involving his opponent. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party during the height of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. The magazine stated the party included sex workers and vaccine lobbyists seeking a deal with the government.

For many voters, the stakes go beyond standard policy differences. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Some democratic voters fear he could be freed or return to government if his son wins. Brazilian press reports indicate that several of his fellow plotters could receive senior military and police posts. Marta Moraes, a 59-year-old restaurateur, said she opposes "Bolsonarismo" rather than the right as a whole. She lost four relatives due to neglect during the pandemic.

Many in the Rio crowd belong to "Lula's Army." This is a WhatsApp group with 10 million members formed after the first round. Isabella Gaze, a 64-year-old retired teacher, stated, "This isn't a normal election." Cammy Marinho, a 49-year-old DJ and activist, spent the last two weeks trying to persuade Bolsonaro voters to switch sides. Fourteen-year-old Heitor Lopes da Silva traveled from Duque de Caxias in a wheelchair. He carried a placard supporting the president.

Bolsonaro supporters also organized rallies. In Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, thousands gathered in Praça da Liberdade. They wore Brazil's yellow football jersey and waved national flags alongside US flags. Minas Gerais has the country's second-largest electorate. It is considered a key bellwether state. No candidate has won the presidency without carrying this state. Bolsonaro led there by just under 5% in the first round.

Supporters in Belo Horizonte defended Bolsonaro's security platform. Antonio Carlos Costa Jr, a 59-year-old shooting club owner, said Jair Bolsonaro gave citizens the right to defend themselves. He argued his son would do the same. Security experts note that Jair Bolsonaro's loosening of gun laws diverted many firearms to criminal gangs. Lula has since tightened those rules. Lula's supporters point to Bolsonaro's ties to Rio's paramilitary militias. Erika Cavalcante, a 43-year-old architect, carried a sign that read, "Don't let the mobsters win."