Satellite Data Maps 9,000 Hectares of New Poppies in Pakistan's Balochistan

David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on illicit drugs, reported that satellite imagery has identified more than 9,000 hectares of poppy cultivation in Pakistan's Balochistan province. The data comes from Alcis, a British firm, and marks a sharp increase in production within the country's largest and poorest province.

Mansfield, who authored an August report for Alcis, stated that the remote borderlands of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran have become a global center for opium production. He attributed the shift to the Taliban's 2022 ban on narcotics and growing instability in the tri-border area. The analysis found that most of the new crops are concentrated in the districts of Loralai and Killa Abdullah.

The expansion follows a decline in Afghan output since the Taliban imposed their ban. Mansfield noted that Afghan farmers from Kandahar and Helmand have crossed the border to lease land in Balochistan. These growers bring capital and expertise, investing millions of Pakistani rupees in solar-powered wells and sharing profits with local landowners.

In Killa Abdullah, Abdul Qahar Wadan, a former National Assembly member, claimed that cultivation is rampant and backed by senior military officials. He said power brokers take commissions from growers. Monawar Hussain, the district's chief administrative officer, rejected that claim, stating that cultivation declined after an eradication campaign last year. However, Alcis imagery from 2026 shows no clear evidence of that eradication.

A farmer in Killa Abdullah, who spoke anonymously, said growers pay bribes to local authorities through influential intermediaries. He alleged that when media attention increases, growers sometimes plant poppies on barren land so officials can destroy the crop for publicity. Lala Jan Kakar, a resident of the same district, said that insecurity, drought, and flash floods have devastated traditional fruit farming.

Kakar said the demand for poppies and the resulting income now far exceed that of fruit. He noted that Afghan growers invest in infrastructure that local farmers cannot afford. Poppies can be harvested twice a year, and many farmers doubled their cultivated land in 2026. Mansfield called this increase a stark indication that higher cultivation levels should be expected in 2027.

A similar pattern has taken hold in Iran, where Afghan farmers work as tenants. Cultivation has been reported in provinces including Razavi Khorasan, Kermanshah, Lorestan, and Fars. Sistan-Baluchistan remains the main producing region in Iran. Satellite imagery from 2026 shows extensive fields there, some using drip irrigation, which suggests growers expect little risk of eradication.

Iranian authorities have been unable or unwilling to destroy the 2026 crop, partly due to their focus on the war against the United States and Israel since late February. Experts expect cultivation to rise further in 2027 as the economy weakens and separatist insurgency intensifies in the province.

Inside Afghanistan, opium cultivation is also rebounding despite the ban. Production is concentrated in northeastern Badakhshan Province, which accounts for around half of national output, and in several southwestern provinces. Mansfield said southwestern cultivation almost doubled between 2025 and 2026, though it remained limited and concealed within wheat fields.

Mansfield warned that a Taliban directive barring home searches without a court order may signal tolerance for cultivation beyond walled compounds. He said growing numbers of farmers in the southwest may read this concession as a signal to expand. If so, Afghanistan could see a dramatic rise in opium production in 2027.