Eisenkot proposes 58-seat threshold for Israeli minority government

Gadi Eisenkot is proposing a new path to power in Israel that relies on a parliamentary floor of 58 seats rather than a traditional majority of 61.

The former defense chief, who intends to lead the anti-Netanyahu bloc and serve as the primary candidate for government formation, stated that the change-seeking parties could form a cabinet if they secure 58 or 59 seats in the upcoming elections. Under this framework, the new government would be sworn in after passing a confidence vote without the permanent support of 61 members of the Knesset. The administration would then work to expand its support base within the legislature.

This approach addresses a legal distinction in Israeli parliamentary procedure. Swearing in a government requires a majority in a confidence vote, meaning abstentions can allow a new cabinet to take office. In contrast, removing an incumbent government via a constructive vote of no confidence requires 61 MKs to back an alternative. Consequently, the 58-seat plan facilitates the formation of a new government but does not simplify the removal of the current administration.

Key figures within the opposition disagree on the viability of this route. Avigdor Liberman categorically rejects a minority government, insisting on a Zionist majority from the outset. He stated that another election would be preferable to a government that does not meet his conditions. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who lead the Beyachad list, also demand a Zionist government and refuse to rely on the votes or abstentions of Arab parties. Despite these differences, a meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman this week resulted in a joint call to increase voter turnout, though their core disagreement remained unresolved.

Eisenkot has not ruled out receiving outside support from the Ra'am party, although no specific formula for this cooperation has been agreed upon. Yair Golan, the chairman of the Democrats, similarly has not excluded working with Ra'am. Liberman has suggested that some Likud MKs might join a government without Netanyahu, but he has not named any specific lawmakers, and public negotiations are not currently underway.

Simultaneously, the opposition is moving to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana before any coalition agreement is finalized. The bloc aims to control the parliamentary agenda even if Netanyahu remains as a caretaker. The speaker is elected in a public vote early in a new Knesset term, and the opposition could use support from Arab party MKs to elect an agreed candidate. Names currently being considered include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot's list, as well as Meirav Ben-Ari and Eitan Ginzburg from the Bennett-Lapid list.

Liberman estimated this week that up to one-third of outgoing coalition MKs might vote against Ohana, provided they do so openly. The opposition also plans to advance a state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7 and changes to conscription law. They seek to limit the prime minister's tenure and repeal certain judicial changes made by the outgoing government. Liberman additionally wants to bar individuals facing criminal charges from serving as prime minister. No binding agreement exists on the order of these measures, and the memory of the previous Bennett-Lapid government collapsing before completing its legislative goals remains a factor in these discussions.

Polls indicate the anti-Netanyahu camp is currently ahead of the outgoing coalition, though the Zionist parties fall short of the 61-seat majority needed under current agreements. The final seat distribution will depend on the electoral threshold, with a small number of votes potentially deciding whether Israel forms a new government or faces further political instability.