Texas 15th District Polls Flip to Democratic Lead as Hispanic Support Wavers

Donald Trump’s 2024 victory among Texas Hispanic voters appears to be slipping away in the Rio Grande Valley, where new polling gives Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido a five to six point lead in the 15th congressional district. This shift occurs with the midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. The district was redrawn in 2025 to create an 18-point Republican advantage, yet current data suggests the political winds have turned.

The region delivered a record 55% of Hispanic votes to a Republican presidential candidate in 2024. That surge followed a period of high border activity, where more than 2.5 million apprehensions were recorded in a single year under former President Joe Biden. Trump campaigned on ending illegal crossings, and those numbers are now at their lowest levels in decades. The promise of a secure border initially drove the Republican gains in the area.

Recent surveys taken since late summer indicate that a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas now disapprove of the president. The support gap has narrowed to a point where Democrats favorably outpoll Republicans. In McAllen, Republican Mayor Javier Villalobos acknowledged the difficulty of the race. He noted that while most residents accept the deportation of criminals, friction arises when productive, law-abiding individuals are targeted.

Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman and leader of the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times but plans to vote Democrat in November. Guerrero cited the lack of communication regarding the administration’s enforcement tactics. He described an acquaintance whose construction crew of 35 daily workers has shrunk to as few as four or six due to the crackdown. Republican consultant Mike Madrid observed that Latinos are more likely to identify as independents than any other group.

The local impact is visible in places like La Lomita Catholic Chapel, located 200 yards from the Rio Grande. Father Roy Snipes, a priest who served the congregation for nearly 50 years and resisted border wall plans during Trump’s first term, preached on ICE actions to about 30 worshippers. He stated there is no excuse to detain poor neighbors. Government figures obtained by the Deportation Data Project show Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026.

Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, has focused his campaign on the local economy rather than national party branding. At a local avocado festival, voters Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices. Baldwin said the president controls their destiny and is not doing a good job. Cost of living remains the top concern for many in the valley.

Republican campaigners admit they face challenges. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterms as a game of turnout. Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, credited Trump with breaking through barriers but acknowledged that national political headwinds are real. In the 15th district, the polls indicate a clear advantage for Pulido.

A modest swing back to Democrats in this district could reshape races beyond the local level. The shift is significant enough to potentially put a U.S. Senate seat in play. Democrats have not won a Texas Senate seat in more than 30 years.